Wednesday, September 12, 2007

A Psychic Review-- Kavanna: Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones: Variations

I stumbled across this analysis and found it interesting but it failed to cover some of the more critical aspect which are not adquately covered in the public discourse and so as to leave the picture rather rosy but incomplete.

Kavanna: Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones: VariationsReports--The specific mechanism that drives topical cyclones with excess heat and moisture is the nighttime temperature difference between the still-warm water and the cooler air.* "Global warming" will raise air temperatures more than it does water temperatures. Hence, the air-water temperature gap narrows, and the cyclone-driving "heat/moisture pump" is weakened. Some consequences of this change are difficult to trace out in full. But the essentials are unequivocal:

Poleward transfer of heat and moisture: reduced
Duration of tropical cyclones: reduced
Intensity of tropical cyclones: reduced
Frequency of cyclonic storms: hard to say, but an educated guess is: reduced
Poleward movement of tropical cyclones: enhanced by stronger Hadley cell and other convective motions
Overall, in a "globally warming" world, expect a (probably) reduced frequency of tropical storms, with each storm being less intense and shorter-lived, and moving more quickly poleward away from the equator.

Further thoughts on tropical cyclones. People living in tropical and subtropical areas obviously have a big stake in this question, and it's been manipulated and misrepresented by "global warming" hysterics eager to chase ambulances. In particular, whenever a major hurricane like Katrina or Rita hits a populated and developed area like the Gulf coast, we can expect more "global warming" hysterics. Little attention is paid to the big fact of hurricane-prone areas, that they're far more populated and developed now than they were 30 or 50 years ago. As a result, they will necessarily suffer more human damage when a large storm lands than they would have back then.

The delicious irony of it all is this: more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting Atlantic hurricanes are almost certainly an indicator of a summertime atmosphere that is cooling year on year. It's one piece of a growing body of evidence that the Earth's atmosphere, or at least the north Atlantic, has been cooling - in fact, since the late 90s.

Put simply, periods of Atlantic warming (1920s and 30s; late 70s to mid 90s) are periods of reduced hurricane activity. Periods of Atlantic cooling (late 1940s to mid 70s) are periods of increased hurricane activity. The reasons are just those spelled out above. An upcoming summary of the present climate situation will return to this point.
* As summer passes on into fall, the tropical air cools day by day faster than does the water. Recall that water has a much larger heat capacity than does air.

Of course none of this deal with the true nature of the real terror of Global Warming which does not reside in the atmophere but rather in the ocean depths... Look cooling in the Atlantic does not mean Global Warming is not a factor or without consequence... The fact of the matter is the polar caps are dwindling at a rate never calculated or predicted by the models so all this cold water spilling into the Atlantic is sure to have a chilling effect. The major consequence will be found in changes to the dynamics of plate tectonics, which because of heat induction into the oceans according to the most recent evidence gleaned from the fossil records of ancient magma flow from the deep ocean ridges indicate. Once the arctic ocean is free of its ice grip upon the continental plates at the top of the world things really begin to rock and roll... Of course, by the time it becomes evident that this is indeed the case it will already be too late. Maybe Google on something called the Siberian Trapps. Or perhaps visit The Psychic News Network for further links.

The discourse continues so as not to appear argumentative
Binah goes on to say:

In restricting my comments to the north Atlantic, I was just being cautious. There's too much tendency to think that regional or local temperature trends necessarily reflect global trends.

That said, the up and down temperature trends in the north Atlantic are almost certainly connected with regional climate oscillations, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and probably have nothing to do with "global warming." See:

The fact that ENSO has been essentially shut off since the late 90s is a sstrong hint for a neutral-to-cooling global temperature trend in the last decade. That fits the surge in hurricanes during that same period.

I must continue to point out that tho a lot of this is not obvious but the way and manner events have started to play out it makes no sense to look at the entire pictue in a regional or local manner when its clear its all connected... And in a very big way. The stakes are far too important and frankly because honest to god I pray that I'm wrong but another 8.4 quake in Indonesia today (10/12/2007) seems to provide certain confirmation that we are witness to a global events that have not visited our planet quite a long time (The time of the Siberian Traps is measured in the millions of years).

However if some might try to avoid the obvious with a befuddlement of the mathematical data... Granted all and all a bit complex but if you ask yourself a very simple question... Can you hold more heat in a mayonnaise jar fill with air or with water... Obviously water is the correct answer... Now the premise our weather is driven by simple atmospherics is just as ludicrous and so because it (El Nino that is) driven in nature by these simple atmospherics because its seasonal is also just as ludicrous. Try for a moment to consider if you have an electron particle stream, from the Sun, that also reacts with the electromagnetic lines of force in a seasonal fashion as you do in fact with the rotation of the earth (if one thinks of the earth as being an electromagnetic dynamo for the electric inductor of solar heat). This would also explain a seasonal shift in El Nino as far back as 1925 (and beyond the time of the industrial age) actually much of this is outside of the simple man made effects of carbon dioxide gases but which the overall build up cannot simply be ignored from the fossil record, as ancient magma flows on the sea bed floor indicate. The point of all this is that we confront a problem of an extinction event... If it sounds hysterical, sorry but the "death knell”of human civilization has that effect... Especially if there is something we can do to stop it. And there is something we can do see Building Carpethia